The government subsidy policy has stimulated a year-on-year increase in sales of domestic micro-cars in the first half of the year, and auto companies are rushing to the micro-vehicle market. The new investment project, together with the expansion of the production capacity of the original major mini-vehicle makers, risks mini-vehicle production being phased in excess. Once sales growth has slowed to a normal level, it will be difficult for those newly entered enterprises to compete with industry oligarchs such as SAIC-GM-Wuling and Changan Automobile (000625, stocks).
Rapid expansion of production capacity
According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2009, domestic sales of passenger cars were 937,500, a year-on-year increase of 54.46%, which was far higher than the increase of 25.62% in sales of passenger cars during the same period.
The dramatic increase in the sales volume of mini vehicles has greatly stimulated the impulse of companies to invest in mini vehicles. Earlier this year, Chery Automobile and Haima Motors respectively released the micro-car brand and plans to expand the product launch. Geely Automobile also expressed its intention to enter the micro-car industry. A few months later, the enthusiasm of auto companies to invest in micro-cars is still high. In late June, the construction of the minicar base of Shaanxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was started. The company plans to invest 3 billion yuan to build an annual production capacity of 100,000 micro-vehicles in 2012 and eventually reach 300,000 vehicles.
Lifan Motors has also planned 150,000-200,000 micro-vehicle production capacity. The first batch of products will be rolled out in October this year. BAIC Group has also started to develop micro-bus models, and the products will be listed two years later.
Compared with the capacity planning of new entrants, the two major oligarchs in the mini-vehicle market have been able to expand their operations. SAIC-GM-Wuling’s production capacity has been expanded to 900,000 by the end of last year and is expected to expand to more than 1 million next year. Chang’an Automobile has recently started construction of a new micro-vehicle base in Chongqing, and the Hebei and Nanjing bases have also begun to expand their capacity. It will be expanded to more than 1 million vehicles.
According to statistics published by the reporter, the number of automakers manufacturing micro-vehicles in China has increased from the original 5 companies to more than 10, and the current production capacity is about 2.3 million, and it is expected to reach nearly 4 million by 2012. At present, the micro-vehicle market presents a competitive pattern between SAIC-GM-Wuling and Changan Auto. Their market share, French Tranch, means “part of†and is widely used to refer to a portion, an allocation, and staging. One of the deliveries (an instalment) etc. Nearly 70%, other companies split the remaining 20% ​​of the market.
Some auto companies have entered the micro-vehicle industry purely to expand the overall scale of production and sales. Zhongshi, an analyst in the famous automobile industry, said that the micro-vehicle segment is an important filler for big business groups. It has no strong, no it does not. Big.
Growth rate will slow down
According to the sales volume forecast for the first half of this year, mini vehicle sales will exceed 2 million units this year, an increase of nearly 50% year-on-year. In the past few years, mini vehicle sales growth was only about 10%.
CSC Securities analysts refer to those who are engaged in the analysis of company data, economic data, or price charts to make recommendations for trading. Chen Zheng said that the sharp increase in car sales in the first half of this year has the effect of policy stimulus, but it is not the main reason. Since the beginning of this year, the monthly sales of automobiles have repeatedly exceeded market expectations, and its rebound rate, sustainability, and structural changes have not been explained by the “phased rebound under policy stimulusâ€. This situation reflects the obvious trend of the popularization of automobile consumption, and the prosperity of the auto market will enter a long period. In terms of micro-cars, micro-gums are suitable for both urban and rural areas and rural areas. The rapid development of commercial economy in rural areas, urbanization, and purchasing power of farmers will continue to drive demand for micro-customers.
However, despite the continuing demand for the mini-vehicle market, sales growth will hardly maintain a growth rate of over 50% in the first half of this year. The strong sales of micro-vehicles in the first half of the year were largely driven by the rapid development of the sub-county economy, especially the commercial economy, which was related to the country’s increasing rural infrastructure and the employment of migrant workers returning home. The release of this demand has certain characteristics. After the release in the first half of the year, it is expected that the growth rate will begin to slow down in the second half of the year, and it is expected to fall back to about 10%-15% next year, which is equivalent to the normal level of growth. Some new companies entering the micro-vehicle industry are facing investment risks. It takes 1-2 years from the start of construction of the new project to the start of production. When the project is completed, the growth of the mini-vehicle industry has slowed down.
Zhang Baolin, general manager of Changan Automobile, also stated that with the advancement of urbanization, mini vehicles as a means of production will be more widely used, and he is still optimistic about the mini vehicle market in the next 5-10 years. However, market growth will remain flat. It means that the price of stocks or financial instruments neither rises nor falls. It is also called sideways (horizontal fluctuations). 2. Describe a bond that is bought and sold on condition that there is no accrued interest, such as a defaulted bond. 3. Describe the position neither do long or short. Stability, it is difficult to re-appear the 50% increase in the first half of this year.
The challenge may appear in the traditional off-season automobile sales in July, coupled with the sharp rise in refined oil prices on June 30. July sales are likely to decline, and sales of mini vehicles will slow down. It is not known whether those who enter the market face a decline in the sales volume in the next two or three months and whether they will review their strategy for entering the mini vehicle market.
Increased market barriers
Although the mini-vehicle market capacity is increasing, the threshold for the latter entrants is constantly rising. Micro-vehicle design is relatively simple, technical threshold is not high, the main threshold is the scale of production and sales and cost control.
The first is the scale of production and sales, and the mini-car market has typical economies of scale. Due to the lower selling price (the lowest minivans only have more than 20,000 yuan), the profits of Maori company's turnover (also known as operating income, sales) minus the cost of goods sold have not yet deducted all kinds of direct costs that are not products. Fees and profits tax. Both the rate and the added value are relatively low. At the same time, the profitability is greatly affected by the fluctuation of raw material prices. Therefore, it is more necessary to have a certain scale to have a certain ability to resist risks.
In the next year or two, the production and sales volume of the two oligarch mini-vehicles will reach more than 1 million vehicles, and the capacity of entrants will generally only be 100,000-200,000 vehicles. Chen Zheng said that under normal circumstances, the car to build a new project to reach 200,000 vehicles to achieve break-even, and micro-vehicle to reach the balance of profits required to achieve a greater scale.
Followed by the cost, profitability of micro-car business is closely related to the company's cost control ability. SAIC GM Wuling and Changan Automobile's micro-vehicle business has its own production of many important components. It can effectively control and control a company's theoretical need to own more than 50% of the company's voting rights. However, if the company’s shares are dispersed, shareholders holding more shares are Less than 50% of the shares may also have the ability to effectively control the operation of the company. In English, it is called working control. Digestion costs, and new entrants in the short term is difficult to establish a complete system of parts and components. And because there is no product development experience, the sales network is also blank, which requires a huge investment.
In the first half of this year, the price of raw materials such as steel and rubber (information, quotation) was low, and the mini-vehicle price was stable. The high sales volume increased the profitability of many companies' mini-car business, and the average gross profit margin could reach 7%-8% ( In the past, only about 5%). However, starting in May and June of this year, steel prices have started to rebound. With the gradual improvement of the domestic real economy, the demand for steel products will gradually increase, prices will rebound, and the pressure on raw material prices for mini vehicle industry will increase.
Emission standards upgrades will also significantly increase the cost of micro-vehicles. At present, many micro-substances are still the national III emission standards. If they are upgraded to national IV emissions, they will also increase costs. In addition, with the increasing demand and taste of rural consumers, micro-vehicles are in urgent need of improvement in terms of safety and comfort. The reporter has experienced micro-vehicles produced by a company. Although air-conditioning is installed, the cooling effect is relatively poor. The odor of the ornaments is even more unbearable. However, it is difficult to increase the security and comfort as a precondition for price increase, and the increased costs can only be absorbed through an ever-expanding scale.
NEW MODEL COLD WATER HIGH PRESSURE WASHER
Qingdao Main-Link Cleaning Equipment Co.,Ltd , http://www.qdspraygun.com