The trend of auto consumption under high oil prices

The price of 93# gasoline has finally reached a record high, and it has already exceeded 8 yuan. The negative impact of rising oil prices on other industries has also been fermented, especially in the automobile sales industry that is closely related to the level of oil prices. Although the impact has not yet reached the sales terminal directly, industry insiders have begun to worry about the 2012 Chinese auto market that was originally not considered promising.

A media survey showed that after the gasoline price exceeded 8 yuan, more than 40% of prospective car owners were prepared to postpone or cancel the car purchase plan, and another 40% of the interviewed car owners indicated that they would drive less or select public transport in the future.

Can high oil prices really curb car consumption? Will the results of the survey become a reality?

A few years ago, cars were still a "luxury product" to a considerable extent for many Chinese families. However, over time, the car has begun to enter the family, with television, computers, refrigerators, air conditioners, etc., almost become an indispensable consumer goods in a good life. However, this has only happened in recent years.

With China’s auto ownership of thousands of people far behind developed countries, China still has thousands of families eager to own a car. The rigid demand of these families will become the driving force behind China's car sales growth in the next few years.

No matter how high the price of oil is, it cannot wipe out the desire of Chinese consumers for a better life. Every morning and evening peaks, people who are stuffed into the urban railway Batong line like sardines, there must be a few people who want to own a car of their own, even if they are out of the window and the crowd is stuck on the Jingtong Expressway. . Only unfortunately, some of them may not have shake numbers at the moment, and they may not shake for N months.

On the other hand, small cities have become new “treasures” in the eyes of car manufacturers, while big cities have introduced restrictions on purchase policies to ease urban traffic pressure. Some people think that consumers in third and fourth tier cities in China are far less sensitive to oil prices than in small cities in first-tier cities. The dependence on cars is smaller and the utilization rate is not high. In recent years, the sales channels of automobile manufacturers have explored these small and medium-sized cities.

Recall that a few years ago, when people complained and even yelled at a house of 10,000 yuan and a square meter, nobody would have thought that house prices in Beijing would increase several times in a few years, and many people would only be able to Complaining, while paying the down payment, the government has to issue a purchase restriction policy. Similarly, the scene of more than three petrol per liter seems to have been a short time ago, but the process of doubling the oil price is also the process of doubling China's auto sales. This all stems from rigid demand.

High oil prices will not curb China’s auto consumption, but it may change China’s auto consumption habits. In the past, the days of large-displacement luxury SUVs were really good, and luxury car owners had previously had low sensitivity to oil prices. However, when the price of oil is high enough, economic leverage will cause consumer demand to lean toward smaller, less fuel-efficient eco-friendly models, and hybrids may see explosive growth.

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