Since the publication of the "Notice on Continuing the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), the new energy automobile market, which has been quiet for several months during the vacuum period of the new energy policy, has finally ushered in a new dawn.
The news that followed happened to prove that the new energy vehicle was rejuvenated.
Firstly, BYD will invest RMB 3 billion in the Nanjing New Energy Vehicle Project. The first phase of construction will start at the end of November and plans to complete the production of assembly lines for pure electric buses including parts, welding, chassis, and final assembly at the end of next year. Production of 1,000 pure electric buses. In addition, after the new energy automobile project is completed, it can produce 5000 pure electric buses and 1,000 pure electric light buses annually.
Another piece of news is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has for the first time issued an alert list of 48 car companies to dispose of the Anqing Andar Motor Company's future or test water new energy vehicle manufacturing.
One of the parties in the news - BYD's automotive products are mainly cars. Although in recent years it has also been involved in the field of new energy buses, there is still a gap between its products and mainstream domestic bus companies. Another is the company that has been dismissed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Although it can't be seen with colored glasses, it is disqualified to show that it is not capable. We can't help but ask: Companies are entering the field of new energy vehicles, especially new energy buses. Is this good or bad? In addition, mainstream passenger car plants have almost their own new energy products. Some companies are also building new energy projects. Is there really such a big attraction and market space for new energy vehicles?
Or will bring challenges to mainstream passenger car factories
For this phenomenon, Mr. Liu, a regional manager of a well-known bus company, believes that many manufacturers have moved in the field of new energy vehicles, and there are no good or bad points in launching new energy projects: “The technological strength of enterprises varies, and production The new energy vehicle products that come out are not the same.The same new energy equipment is installed in the vehicle, according to different manufacturers' technical strength, the energy saving effect can be very different.Diversified products provide users with a variety of options , products that are not recognized will naturally be eliminated."
“From the point of view of technical strength and market fundamentals, mainstream bus companies will not be too afraid of other companies entering the new energy field, but there is also a problem. Everyone knows that the local protection of new energy buses is more serious, such as BYD’s production in Nanjing. With new energy buses, it is very difficult for other companies to get orders for new energy buses in Nanjing, so if more non-mainstream new energy auto companies emerge, it will have an impact on the purchase of local new energy buses. There is a doubt that BYD is an electric passenger car in Nanjing. What does Nanjing Jinlong (Nanjing Jinlong Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd.) do? It mainly produces 6 to 12 meters of city buses, tourist buses, group buses, long-distance buses, and CNG. Passenger cars, LNG passenger cars, pure electric buses, and hybrid and other new energy buses are companies that have been strongly supported by the Nanjing government. Many orders were received during the Youth Olympic Games.†Mr. Wu, a market analyst for a bus company, told reporters his own Concerns: "Does this change the pattern of the Nanjing bus market?"
Doing new energy has both "face" and "lizi"
It is precisely the optimistic view of the new energy field that makes this market so lively.
“From a macro point of view, everyone is optimistic about the role of national support policies in promoting the new energy automotive industry. The prospects in this field are good. From a large perspective, new energy vehicles are projects that the country will support within a few years. In the future, on September 20, 2012, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the “Notice on Organizing and Implementing New Energy Vehicle Industry Technology Innovation Projectsâ€, which enabled the new energy vehicle market to be cultivated in the fourth quarter of last year. The outbreak was achieved in the first half of this year.†Industry experts pointed out: “At present, new energy vehicles have risen to the height of energy conservation and emission reduction. According to national policies, new energy buses, especially buses, are certainly one of the future development trends. Explicitly stated that 'the purchase of vehicles from government agencies, public agencies and other fields should be tilted toward new energy vehicles, and the proportion of newly added or updated new energy vehicles in bus, official, logistics, and environmental sanitation vehicles should not be less than 30%'. It can be said that the development of new Energy vehicles, especially new energy buses, can well highlight corporate social responsibility and allow companies to have a better social image.â€
The lucrative return of new energy vehicles allows companies to win "face" while enriching the "little".
“This year, the company’s sales of large passenger cars have fallen a lot, but new energy passenger cars have performed quite well, mainly because of state subsidies for new energy buses, especially in areas where subsidies are in place,†said Mr. Liu.
The opinions of industry experts are even more sharp: "The reason why companies with weaker capabilities are producing new energy products is that they want to use state subsidies."
In addition to subsidies, the new energy bus itself has a very attractive profit.
“The new energy bus has a high technological content and is a technology-intensive industry. It requires the production enterprises to have certain technical strength and complete supporting facilities, so the profits are also quite rich.†The expert disclosed: “The profit of new energy buses cannot be generalized. Look at the pricing strategy, key assembly configuration, etc. It is estimated that the profit of an 850,000 yuan new energy bus will be around 50,000 yuan, while that of the ordinary bus will be only 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan. There are only a few thousand yuan, and some are even and even at a loss. Some bus companies are called “gangs†by bus companies. On the one hand, they are desperately trying to keep prices down, and on the other hand, they will specify a lot of configurations. So how can bus companies make money? In order to earn a processing fee, bus orders are considered to be a loss-making business, but it is just a matter of quantity, but new energy bus can not be a loss because it has a high added value, plus the country will give Subsidy, profitability will be much better."
However, there are also concerns that with the development of new energy vehicles and the increase of new entrants, high profits in this area are likely to be temporary. “The profits of the previous batch of orders may be higher, and the profit behind it will gradually decrease. Take the hybrid bus as an example. The past price was between 800,000 and 900,000 yuan, and now it is between 700,000 and 800,000 yuan. At the same time, smart and electrified equipment has been used more, but Mr. Wu said.
Healthy development depends on market guidance
Previously, new energy vehicle fever has proved that the industry's dependence on policy is very serious. The start and end time of the subsidies involved in the "Notice" is from 2013 to 2015. If there is no longer subsidies after 2015, will there be a situation of excess capacity?
For the development of new energy buses, industry experts pointed out that they should rely on the market to guide: “At present, new energy passenger cars have not been industrialized after all, and they are still mainly hybrid vehicles. Pure electric vehicles are still in the hype stage, and the market is running Not much, but the quality of products and supporting facilities are still not perfect.The “Notice†shows that the State Council has approved the agreement to continue the promotion and application of new energy vehicles across the country from 2013 to 2015. This means that the country’s Subsidies will be withdrawn only until 2015. Subsidies will be withdrawn, and companies that have the ability, strength, and qualifications will develop through 2 to 3 years of support; if they do not have the ability to support them, they will not be able to do so. It is impossible to support the company for a long time, if the support time expires, it will be given to the market to operate.If the products made by the company are not purchased by users, then the company will be eliminated by the market.Although there are many companies entering the field of new energy buses, I do not think It is up to the state to specify which companies can do and which companies can't do. What the country can do is regulate the technical threshold and system. Technical standards, reach a certain standard, you can not get the product announcement. "
“The new energy bus industry is certainly beginning to be more, chaotic, and miscellaneous. It will be followed by the development of the bus industry, and it may be integrated into several major companies. And I believe that the integration process of new energy buses is definitely better than the bus industry. The process of integration is quick and early, it may only take a few years, and a new pattern will emerge, because the new energy bus market is developing rapidly, the strength of strong bus companies, and the attitude of the local government are clear, which to use? The family's products support which one. Once the integration starts, several rounds will come and a big pattern will form.†Mr. Wu believes that in this process, it is necessary to establish a threshold: “Many people in the industry have been stressing that The new energy bus has set a threshold, but in my opinion, the country has never intended to set a threshold, or set a threshold, a decent bus company can achieve."
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