Industrial giant Andy Su suspends VA or increases prices

The reporter learned from industry sources that the third-largest producer of Vitamin A (VA) in the world, the Anthi So factory, had suffered a severe cold in France and had burst the pipeline system last Thursday. It has now stopped production. The source said that this will lead to changes in the global VA supply and demand situation, and it is expected that VA prices will rise in the short-term as supply decreases.

According to the above analysis, the current VA price has bottomed out and is entering an upward path. Jindawei, Xinhecheng, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical and other domestic VA production companies, Jindawei benefited most from price increases. In 2010, Jindawei VA products accounted for 34% of its main business revenue, Xinhe became 16%, Zhejiang Pharmaceuticals was 4.36%.

VA is a highly funded and technologically intensive industry with complex processes, large investment scales, relatively high barriers to entry, and a small number of VA production companies worldwide. It mainly includes DSM, BASF, Andy Susu and other foreign companies and Xinhecheng and Zhejiang. Pharmaceuticals and Jin Dawei and other domestic companies. Among them, DSM, BASF, and Adisseo occupy nearly 70% of the global VA market share, and the remaining 30% is shared by Chinese companies. In the past year, there has been no expansion of global VA production capacity, and demand has increased year by year. Therefore, VA is currently the most balanced vitamin variety of supply and demand.

This reporter learned that Andy Su was originally scheduled to resume production on the 14th, but the industry is not optimistic about whether it can resume production as scheduled. Even if the pipeline is repaired and rehabilitated quickly, it will affect the production capacity of Adisseo's production cycle (30-40 days), because it will take a certain period of time to reach full capacity. If you need a thorough overhaul, it will be difficult to predict how long it will take to resume production.

Therefore, industry insiders believe that due to Andy Sue’s 15% capacity in the global VA market, the suspension of the plant's damaged production may cause the VA price to rise sharply in the short term.

On the other hand, in the second half of last year, the decline in VA prices triggered the destocking of channels and end customers (mainly international feed companies). At present, the VA prices are facing a rebound after destocking. It is reported that some companies in the downstream animal nutrition (feed) companies of VA, such as the global giant Dutch Tai Higher, currently have inventories that may be in about 3 weeks, and are seriously inadequate (safety inventory is 2 months).

After a long period of full competition, the global VA market has basically matured and stabilized. From 2003 to 2010, except for 2008, the VA market price showed a narrow range of fluctuations. From 2003 to 2007, the VA price basically fluctuated between 85 yuan/kg and 140 yuan/kg. Since 2008, due to factors such as supply shortage and shortage of main raw materials, rising prices of raw materials and energy, the market price of global VA has rapidly increased and reached its peak in July 2008, but the duration of the fluctuations has been short. 2008 The annual average price is 140 yuan/kg. Since 2009, the VA market price has maintained a narrow range of fluctuations, basically stabilizing at RMB 95/kg to RMB 130/kg, and the average price for 2009 was RMB 120/kg. The average annual price in 2010 is 100 yuan/kg. The maximum rose to 170 yuan in 2011, and then gradually fell to 122.5 yuan, and since January this year, it has stabilized at 125 yuan.

According to relevant media reports, the current domestic vitamin production giant Xinhecheng has increased the market price of VA and vitamin E (VE), and Zhejiang Pharmaceuticals has stopped offering foreign prices. The monitoring of the vitamin market by Boya and News and Health Network shows that the latest offer of New Hecheng VA products is RMB 140/kg recently.

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