The high energy-consuming electrolytic aluminum industry has recently become a national hotspot. On April 10th, the Development and Reform Commission issued an emergency notice requesting to curb the rebound in investment in aluminum smelting and clean up the proposed construction projects for the aluminum smelting industry. On the 18th, Premier Wen Jiabao stated at the executive meeting of the State Council: “We must put a stop to high energy-consuming products. Growth, as the focus of the current and the whole year of macro-control, will accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, implement the policies for restricting the export of high-energy-consuming products as soon as possible, and implement the differential pricing policy within the time limit.†The second day, Li Xiaochao, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, was in the State Council. The press conference held by the Information Office stated that under the background of the shift from electricity supply and demand to tight balance, the phenomenon of blind development in the energy-intensive industries of electrolytic aluminum has once again risen. With the investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry soaring and the large number of aluminum exports appearing, the country will increase its macroeconomic control over the aluminum industry, and the introduction of more stringent policies is just around the corner. Investment in electrolytic aluminum soared and aluminum increased significantly
In 2006, China produced 9.35 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, 146.7 kWh of comprehensive AC power consumption, and consumed 13.72 billion kWh of electricity, accounting for 4.9% of the nation's electricity consumption. It is a truly high-energy-consuming industry. In the same year, the total output value of electrolytic aluminum was less than 1% of the national GDP. In 2006, the investment in aluminum smelting industry (including electrolytic aluminum and alumina) was 28.85 billion yuan, an increase of 9.57%, and the number of projects was 177. From January to February this year, the investment in fixed assets of the aluminum smelting industry was 21.17 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2% year-on-year, and 48 projects under construction. The investment in the industry was already very significant. According to statistics from Beijing Antaike Information Company, the cumulative capacity of electrolytic aluminum projects under construction in China is close to 4.5 million tons, of which approximately 3.7 million tons will be completed and put into production by the end of 2007. In addition, idle capacity will be concentrated in 2007 after the restart in the second half of 2006. Therefore, the output of primary aluminum in 2007 is forecast to increase to more than 12 million tons, an increase of 27.7% from 2006.
The expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has also led to a rapid increase in the production of electrolytic aluminum. In 2006, China produced 9.35 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, an increase of 19.8% over the same period last year. January-February this year was 1.89 million tons, an increase of 40.7% over the same period last year. The rapid growth of electrolytic aluminum production has far exceeded the growth rate of domestic demand. The new output is only digested by direct and indirect exports. In fact, China’s exports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum have also increased significantly. In 2006, China's export of aluminum ingots was still as high as 1,122,000 tons, only a slight decrease compared with the previous year; however, due to exports of many aluminum exports also enjoy export tax rebates, part of the electrolytic aluminum exports after rough processing and aluminum exports, resulting in aluminum exports 1.24 million tons, an increase of 74.3% over the same period last year. In January-February this year, China exported 258,800 tons of aluminum materials, a year-on-year increase of 104.6%, and the growth momentum was very rapid.
According to the "Aluminum Industry Industry Development Policy" and "Notice on Accelerating the Guidance Opinions on Accelerating Aluminum Structure Adjustment" and other documents, the development of China's aluminum industry "is mainly to meet the needs of the domestic market", and the export of aluminum products is obviously the industry of the country. Contrary to policy. Because the export of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum is no different from exporting energy. Demand to increase profits is good to lead to corporate investment
In recent years, with the economic development in China, the consumption of electrolytic aluminum has grown rapidly. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the annual average consumption growth of electrolytic aluminum in China will exceed 16%. In 2006, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 12 million tons, and the output was 9.35 million tons. It is estimated that the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach about 16 million tons in 2010, so electrolytic aluminum still has room for development. Since the second quarter of last year, with the ease of supply and demand of alumina and the sharp decline in prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum production has risen rapidly. In 2006, the electrolytic aluminum company stepped out of the bottom of the loss of 80% of the previous year's enterprises. Instead, it was a surge in profits. Including alumina, the annual aluminum smelting industry realized a profit of RMB 28.818 billion, a record high. According to the current alumina 4,000 yuan / ton, electricity price 0.36 yuan / kWh and aluminum price 19,500 yuan / ton, the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum at least 3,000 yuan. Under the stimulation of such profits, it is difficult to block the impulse of new projects in the company. Why is it difficult to brake the investment in electrolytic aluminum?
As early as 2003, the signs of investment in electrolytic aluminum began to appear. The country has issued a series of policies in a timely manner and achieved significant results. The main manifestations are: the blind investment thermal trend in the aluminum industry has been curbed and the investment growth rate has dropped; the export of electrolytic aluminum has been greatly reduced, and the capacity of self-roasting tanks has been completely eliminated; the proportion of electrolytic aluminum production of large pre-baked cell processes has reached over 80%, and the merger and reorganization of enterprises Accelerate the pace. The company’s production and business conditions improved, and its profits increased significantly;
However, the new round of investment in electrolytic aluminum reappeared more than three years apart. The fundamental reason is that the state and local governments are "cat and mouse games." For the sake of economic interests, local governments only consider their own development, regardless of the repeated application of the state's repeated orders. We should take a break from the national macro-control and industrial restructuring measures.
The state's control measures and measures include industrial policies, planning and layout, investment management, environmental impact assessment, land management regulations, raising the proportion of capital, canceling processing trade, canceling export tax rebates, and levying and raising export tariffs, etc., taking economic, legal and administrative measures. Other means are multi-pronged. In the process of building an electrolytic aluminum plant, there are two major impacts on the company: one is capital and the other is land. At present, domestic companies have strong financing capabilities and have not completely relied on bank loans to solve them. According to statistics, in 2006 China's non-ferrous metals industry fixed assets investment sources of 121.84 billion yuan, of which self-financing 94.07 billion yuan (of which self-raised 77.45 billion yuan of enterprises), accounting for 77.2% of the source of funds; domestic loans 14.12 billion yuan, Only 11.6% of the funding source. If the electrolytic aluminum investment is also in accordance with this ratio, it shows that the proportion of domestic bank loans is already very small, and the state’s previously-defined policy of owning the project’s capital ratio to 35% has little effect on corporate investment. This is what the bank’s gates play. The effect is not so great. From the aspect of environmental protection and technology, China's electrolytic aluminum technology has reached the international advanced level. The operation of large-scale pre-baked trough process is very stable, and it has not been a problem in energy consumption and environmental protection compliance. From the perspective of GDP growth, many local governments are still very happy to launch electrolytic aluminum, and many companies regard the aluminum industry as a pillar industry. Therefore, the issue of land approval is not a problem. Coupled with some remote areas or enterprises own land, it can be said that the land problem is not difficult to solve.
For electrolytic aluminum companies, the biggest constraint to production is alumina and electricity. Due to the large number of alumina projects launched at home and abroad, alumina has already been out of the previous years. The situation has begun to run out of surplus. Imported alumina has gone from 600 US dollars to more than 200 US dollars. Although it has recently recovered to about 400 US dollars, it has been compared to 2800. The dollar's electrolytic aluminum is still acceptable. Besides electricity, some coal and electricity companies are still entering high-energy-consuming industries on the condition of relatively low energy costs. And at present, China has already stepped out of the electricity shortage situation, and many places have begun to appear affluent. In order to curb the blind expansion of high-energy-consuming industries, the Development and Reform Commission issued a policy in September 2006 to implement differential electricity prices for eight high-energy-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum, steel, yellow phosphorus, and zinc smelting, clearly defining the elimination of these industries. The time and standard for the price increase imposed by restricted enterprises on electricity use shall prohibit the implementation of preferential tariffs for energy-intensive enterprises. However, the implementation of this policy in various places is unbalanced. There are 14 provinces that have issued preferential tariffs for high-energy-consuming enterprises on their own in the name of power supply linkage, protocol power supply, large-scale consumer direct supply of electricity, and competitive bidding. Obviously, many places are unwilling to implement differentiated pricing policies for energy-intensive enterprises. In this case, the impact of electricity on electrolytic aluminum companies is not as great as before. What's more, nowadays, many companies, especially those newly launched, have adopted aluminum-electricity joint ventures or coal-electricity-aluminium joint ventures, and the power problem has become less restrictive.
After the China Chemical Network sorted out the country's introduction of the policy, the relevant ministries and commissions did not have as much effort to inspect each project, project and project, and the task of implementation fell on the local government. If the local government fails to implement it, then the best policy will not help. "After it is good, let the following to chant." Therefore, from the above perspective, the national policy can be implemented in local governments, it will not appear that this control of electrolytic aluminum investment should control the export of this gate
Although electrolytic aluminum is a high energy consumption industry, it is also a high energy storage industry. With the rapid development of China's national economy, the consumption demand of electrolytic aluminum is increasing rapidly. Of the current 124 industries in China, 113 use aluminum products, accounting for 91%. Because aluminum has many characteristics such as energy saving, energy storage, environmental protection and recycling, aluminum has a huge market potential. At present, China's per capita aluminum consumption is only 5.5 kg, so China's electrolytic aluminum industry can not stand still, but also continue to develop. The main problems existing in the development of the electrolytic aluminum industry in China are twofold: one is that the production capacity has grown too fast, and the other is that large quantities of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum materials have been exported. Therefore, the state's regulation of electrolytic aluminum is also mainly from these two aspects, and the excessive growth of production capacity directly leads to a large number of exports.
First, a more stringent export tax policy should be introduced to keep the gate of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum exports. Due to the poor implementation of local government, the role of a series of macro measures introduced by the government has been greatly reduced. In the case that the above regulatory policies and measures are difficult to suppress the investment of electrolytic aluminum, the most effective gate is to change the current export policy, increase the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum modestly, and the vast majority of aluminum species should be significantly reduced or even cancelled export tax rebates. Even the export tariffs on primary aluminum are set to solve the current situation of large exports. If the road of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum exports is blocked, a large number of products can only be sold in the domestic market, which will soon lead to excess supply and demand in the market and lower prices. Lower prices make corporate profits sharply reduced or even unprofitable, and companies naturally will not launch new projects. At the same time, it also complies with the industrial policy of “the development of electrolytic aluminum in China to meet domestic demandâ€.
At the same time, in order to comply with the idea of ​​maintaining macroeconomic control and pressure, the state may consider implementing an automatic registration policy for export of aluminum materials, and give an appropriate amount of export value to large enterprises that accord with industry policies.
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