The end of March, chief consultant IHS Chemical Company • Gary Adams IHS Chemical World Petrochemical Conference held in Houston, said global demand for petrochemical products will average 4.4% growth rate by 2020, about twice the global GDP growth rate, The rapid increase in demand in high-growth economic regions and the expansion of production capacity in low-cost production regions will accelerate the global petrochemicals trade. The global petrochemical profits will reach its peak in 2015-2017.
By 2020, the global demand for basic chemicals will increase from the current 680 million tons to 1 billion tons, of which nearly 200 million tons will need to achieve a balance between supply and demand through international trade. About 50% of ethylene glycol production will need to be supplied through international trade. In addition about 1/3 of the polyethylene and methanol production will be exported, and the export rate of key products such as styrene, polystyrene, xylene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinyl chloride will exceed 20 %.
According to Adams' forecast, due to the rising price of naphtha raw materials, prices of petrochemical products will continue to remain high in the future. The profitability of petrochemical product manufacturers around the world will also vary greatly according to different regions and raw material varieties. The ethane-based petrochemical producers in the Middle East and the United States will continue to make lucrative profits, while Asian and European petrochemical producers will face harsh operating conditions due to high costs.
In 2012, the profitability of the basic chemical and synthetic resin industries will continue to increase, especially for manufacturers with cost advantages. IHS Chemicals predicts that the global average EBIT for basic chemicals and synthetic resins will peak in 2016 at approximately US$200/ton, and the 2010 EBIT average will be approximately US$50/ton.
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