The development of China's auto market began in 2001, of which 2002 and 2003 were the most critical and rapid two years for the development of the Chinese auto market. In a short period of five years, the demand for automobiles in the Chinese automotive market has continuously climbed 3 million, 4 million and 5 million steps, with an average annual growth rate of 24.2%, far higher than the annual average growth rate of 4.4% in the global automotive market. Magnitude.
If China's auto market is placed in the overall environment of the global auto market, China’s share of sales in global auto sales has increased from less than 5% in 2001 to 8.6% in 2005. In 2005, China-made automobile sales reached 5.758 million vehicles. Taking into account import and export factors, a total of 5.725 million automobiles were sold in the year, and China has become the world’s third largest consumer of automobiles.
It is estimated that in 2006, the total demand in China's auto market will exceed 7 million vehicles, accounting for more than 10% of the global automotive market sales for the first time. Since then, China will become the world’s second largest automotive consumer.
Compared with the global auto market's annual growth rate of less than 5%, the Asia-Pacific market, especially the Chinese auto market, as the world's most dynamic and most promising auto market, has become increasingly important in the global market.
In essence, the Asia-Pacific market dominated by China has become the engine that drives the growth of the world's auto market. According to the global automobile sales data in 2005, the Asia-Pacific market has a net increase of 1.379 million vehicles, which contributes 66.6% to the growth rate of the global automotive market. Among them, China's contribution rate to the global automotive market reaches 28.1%.
From the perspective of the development of China's auto market in 2006, the continued rapid growth of the passenger car market (explanations: passenger vehicles described in this article does not include minibuses) has led to a continuous increase in the overall market. From January to October 2006, domestic passenger car sales reached 3.37 million units, and it is expected that the overall sales volume of the passenger vehicle market will exceed 4 million vehicles throughout the year. The rapid growth of passenger vehicles also makes the average annual growth rate of passenger vehicles from 2001 to 2006 close to 40%.
From the perspective of the commercial vehicle market, driven by the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in 2006 was significantly higher than in previous years, which has driven the demand for commercial vehicles to a certain extent.
The commercial vehicle market showed a recovery after experiencing a downturn in 2005. It is expected that the sales of commercial vehicles (commercial vehicles included in this article include minivans) will exceed 2.8 million units in 2006, and the average annual growth rate of the overall commercial vehicle market during 2001-2006 will be 11.7%.
In addition, due to the gradual launch of the secondary and tertiary markets in China and the rural market, minibus products have achieved relatively large increases under conditions that are not very promising, and sales in 2006 are expected to reach nearly 900,000 units.
Therefore, judging from the perspective of the entire Chinese automobile market, the domestic automobile market will directly surpass the threshold of 6 million vehicles in the passenger vehicle market in 2007 and leap to 7 million vehicles. This also made the topic of provoking the “China's auto market the third or second in the world†at the end of last year, which seemed ridiculous and meaningless.
Two Main Factors Driving the Development of China's Auto Market: Competition and Consumers
Objectively, after the continuous double-digit growth in the past five years, how much growth potential in the Chinese auto market is in the end is a proposition that many people do not have much confidence and self-confidence. After all, a series of extremely variable factors affecting the propositions of China's various regional markets (second- and third-tier cities and rural markets), the development of infrastructure, energy issues, and environmental pollution make the answer to this proposition more uncertain. .
However, in the short-term (3 to 5 years), there are two main factors that drive and influence the Chinese auto market: competition and consumers. Competition is the driving force for internal integration and change in the Chinese automobile market, and consumers are the fundamental factor that drives the development of the Chinese automobile market. By analyzing these two major factors, we can provide the basis for our insight into the future development of the Chinese automobile market.
The competition in the Chinese auto market began with the entry of foreign car companies. Since the establishment of Shanghai Volkswagen in 1985, the Chinese auto industry has experienced many joint venture climaxes. By the end of 2006, the global “6+3†auto group entered China in full, and established numerous joint venture vehicles in China in accordance with the layout along the coast and the coast. enterprise. China’s auto market has become the last land of multinational auto groups.
In particular, following China's accession to the WTO, the competition in the domestic auto market has also undergone a tremendous shift from oligopoly to dominance. With the rise of the Japanese and Korean Departments in the Chinese auto market, the Volkswagen Group has also fallen from the high position of the Chinese passenger car market, which originally occupied half of the Chinese market. As far as the passenger car market is concerned, the market concentration of the top six passenger car manufacturers has dropped from 73.0% in 2001 to 51.9% in 2005, and market competition has become more intense.
The increasingly fierce market competition has also brought about an increase in the delivery of new models. Taking the sedan market as an example, the number of models in the Chinese sedan market has increased from 14 in 1998 to 131 in 2006. Related products basically cover all market segments.
The sudden emergence of independent brands has brought more perspectives to the future development of the Chinese auto market. The independent brands led by Chery, Geely, Xiali, and Brilliance strongly rebounded in 2005 and 2006 after a brief period of silence. The overall share of self-owned brands in the passenger car market rose from 17.2% in the lowest point in 2004 to 2006. The annual growth rate of 26.5% was up nearly 10% in two years. In terms of specific companies, from January to October 2006, Chery Automobile ranked top five in the sales of passenger vehicle companies with sales of nearly 230,000. At the same time, the companies that entered the top 10 were FAW Xiali and Geely Automobile.
However, from the perspective of different market segments, the self-owned brands have absolute advantages in the passenger car market with A0 (prices of approximately US$10,000) and below; in the A- and B-level markets, the German, Japanese, and American markets It is in a dominant position. Therefore, how to enter the A-class market from the A0 market and eventually occupy the B-class market is a major concern for independent brands in the coming years.
The impact of consumers on the domestic automobile market stems from the increase in personal car consumption demand caused by personal income growth. The proportion of private car consumption in total car consumption has increased from less than half before 2000 to 75% in 2006. This change has gradually shifted the consumption structure of Chinese automotive products, especially the consumption structure of passenger vehicles, from the original large-displacement, high-grade, single-purpose public commercial vehicles to small-displacement, medium-low, and diversified. Mainly for family cars. Regardless of the concentration of market segments caused by the single product before 2003, after 2003, the share of passenger cars with Grade A and below in the passenger car market has increased significantly, and SUV products accounted for in the passenger car market. The proportion has also increased significantly. All this indicates that the car began to truly enter the family life in China.
As far as consumers are concerned, their own changes are also an important factor affecting the development of different market segments. From the point of view of the user's structure, the first is the increase in the gender of the female user. The proportion of women who purchase and use the car will increase by about 30% from the current 20%; the second is the change in the age structure of the consumer. The average age of the use group will be reduced from the current 35 years old to about 30 years old.
From the aspect of purchasing behavior analysis, with the expansion of car ownership, the proportion of consumers with experience in using vehicles will continue to rise; at the same time, the norms of the used car market will save more and more consumers from considering income In the case of high prices, we choose to purchase used cars; especially with the gradual liberalization of China's financial sector and the gradual recommendation of individual credit systems, consumers will gradually increase their purchases of auto credit. The gradual development of the Internet, media, and advertising will also enable consumers to obtain channels for relevant car information from the traditional word of mouth to full-scale active acquisition and interactive experience. In terms of the main factors affecting consumers' purchase of vehicles, increasingly sophisticated consumers will pay more attention to the performance, fuel consumption, and overall usage costs of the car under a given budget.
From the perspective of usage behavior, rising fuel prices and increasing congestion in urban transport will increase consumer fuel expenses and parking costs, and consumers will also prefer to purchase compact, lightweight, and fuel-efficient vehicles. However, in the vehicle update time, the past 8-10 years of continuous use of a car will be rare, the replacement of the car in 5 years is the general consumer expectations, and the best replacement method, it is best through the replacement Ways to handle old cars and buy new cars.
The above-mentioned changes in consumer characteristics, purchase behavior, and use behavior will in turn directly affect the auto market itself, and even have different effects on each segment market.
Of course, the relevant factors that affect the future development of the Chinese auto market are far more than just competition and consumers. In the short term, policy factors, new car launches, price changes, and auto import and export will also become one of the major factors affecting the Chinese auto market, especially in 2007.
China's Automobile Market's Short-Term Forecast and 2007 Outlook
According to the prediction of Xinhuaxin Company's future market, the growth trend in 2006 will continue to be maintained until 2007. In 2007, the automobile market will continue to maintain growth of around 15%, especially after two years of preparatory business promotion for auto finance business. Risk assessment is expected to increase market expansion and stimulate the release of some of the demand. At the same time, the export market will continue to grow at a high speed. It is expected that the production and sales of the Chinese auto market will be expected to exceed 8 million in 2007, and will reach a production and sales scale of about 10 million in 2010.
In terms of market segment structure, the growth of the auto market in 2007 will also be driven mainly by the passenger vehicle market, and the commercial vehicle market will continue to grow at a low rate. From a competitive perspective, the launch of new models is still relatively intensive in 2007, and the independent brands are expected to achieve further breakthroughs in the A-class vehicle market and further increase their market share. Car prices continue to continue to decline in the past few years, but the price reduction will be less than in 2006, there is a large space for price reductions are mostly concentrated in the B-class models.
Compared with the past few years, China's auto market in 2007 will also show several different growth trends compared with previous years. The rise in China's fuel prices will prompt the rapid growth of micro and small car markets. Automobile exports have entered a period of rapid growth. Export destination countries will infiltrate from the Middle East, South America and Africa to Europe and North America. The automobile consumption pattern will change significantly. The demand for new cars in central cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will enter the initial stage of saturation. The volume of second-hand cars will quickly exceed the volume of new car transactions, and the second- and third-tier cities and rural markets will become more important. The automobile consumer group will be further multi-layered and diversified. This requires auto manufacturers to be more targeted in the launch of new products. Precision marketing and directional marketing represented by database marketing will become an important means and means to promote auto marketing.
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